Upper-Level System To Bring Severe Threat and Strong Winds Thursday Through Friday.

Severe Weather and Strong Wind Gusts
Iowa Storm Center.com
Date: 10/11/23 at 10:54am Central

Timing: Effective late tonight through Friday….

Hazards: Heavy rainfall, Strong winds, Large hail, damaging winds and a few isolated tornadoes.

Discussion: A trough will deepen in the upper levels of the atmosphere today leading to a developing surface low over Colorado. Meanwhile, a warm front will extend from the low points east across parts of Nebraska and toward the Iowa/Minnesota border. Once the atmosphere has fully destabilized, this boundary will be the primary focus for thunderstorm development (6-8 PM) with the main threat of small to large hail. All shower and thunderstorm activity will then shove north overnight into Thursday morning.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms should linger over northwest Iowa during the day with periods of dry time throughout the day. As the afternoon progresses, rain should gradually fill back in across all northern Iowa with an arrival of stronger storms across extreme west central/southwest Iowa zones. Main threats will be hail and damaging winds. The tornado probabilities will be located across central/eastern Nebraska and points into southwest Iowa. Given the strong southwesterly flow and low-level backed winds, an increase in tornado risk is possible but will be monitored over the next 24 hours. The main takeaway is…primary severe threat across Nebraska and remnant activity drifting into western Iowa in the early evening to overnight.

At this same time, strong easterly surface winds will increase with gusts over 50+ MPH at times overnight into Friday morning. Gusty winds and scattered hit or miss showers will be the main takeaway Friday into early Saturday before the system exits the forecast area. Rainfall amounts will be the highest over northern Iowa from highway 18 and points north to the Minnesota border where very heavy rainfall will be in the northeast quadrant of the surface low.

Amounts for such could easily approach 1-3″ of rain in these zones apart from localized locations missing out as is with any upper-level system of this kind. Refer to attached images below for detailed severe weather, rain and wind risks.

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Severe Risk Today through Tonight – 

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Severe Risk Thursday afternoon/evening –

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Heavy Rainfall Risk Thursday night into early Friday –

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Rain Forecast – 

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Iowa Storm Center Wind Gust Intensity Scale –

Level 6. Damage may occur to buildings and trees. Power outages possible. High Profile Vehicle Roll-Over Likely. Do NOT recommend traveling in this zone.
Level 5. Some trees are broken, building damage possible. High Profile Vehicle Roll-Over Likely. HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA
Level 4. Slight damage may occur to trees/buildings. High Profile Vehicle Roll-Over Possible. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
Level 3. Small branches may break, walking is difficult.
Level 2. Large trees sway, becoming difficult to walk.
Level 1. Small trees sway, breezy

A follow-up article may be required regarding the evolution of Thursday’s severe weather potential. Stay tuned for further updates…

Forecaster: BM

End Article –

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NOTE: The alerts and outlooks posted here are customary made to inform. At times, which is often, you will see an alert forecast posted on here that you do not see elsewhere. That is fine, the track record of the main office is very high so maintain to follow an event when posted.