A strong pacific storm system is expected to impact Iowa Tuesday through Thursday with gusty winds, strong storms and snow. The rain, severe and wind models are included so read on for the full details…
Our next storm system is currently situated right off the coast of California and will quickly pull to the east into the central plains by Tuesday. Now, Tuesday will likely feature a good amount of cloud cover across the state but we should see some clearing by middle/late afternoon and this will be just enough to build some instability and pop off these strong storms. By the evening time frame a surface low will be centered across eastern Nebraska with a warm frontal zone positioned over west central and southwest Iowa. Northeast of the surface low is where storms will develop which will be near the I-29 corridor in western Iowa. Storm initiation should happen anytime after 6 PM and the storms that do develop will be capable of hail with a secondary risk of gusty winds. A Thunderstorm Watch may be needed downstream for these areas to warrant the hail risk but will monitor this trend closely.
The wave of scattered strong storms will push northeast of the state by Wednesday and this should lead to mainly dry conditions across the northwest half of the state. Then an area of showers and thunderstorms will push through southeast Iowa during the day Wednesday which will likely add up a quick 0.5-1.5″ of rain. Eventually cold air will start to take over the system by later Wednesday with additional pieces of energy that will pivot around the main system leading to light snow across much of the state Wednesday afternoon/evening through Thursday morning. If snow can accumulate it will generally be on grass and elevated surfaces and accumulations at max will be 0-2″.
In addition to the precipitation, strong gusty winds will be common across the state Tuesday through Thursday. So breaking it down further, we will have strong southeast winds on Tuesday around level 2-4 on my wind gust intensity scale. The wind will switch around to the north/northwest on Wednesday with levels of 1-3 especially across west and central Iowa. The level on Thursday will be slightly less with 1-2. I have issued a wind advisory for most of the state that will be valid Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening which is when the peak wind gusts will hit. The system will finally pull east of the state by later Thursday morning.
Severe Risk Forecast –
Rain Forecast –
Iowa Storm Center Wind Gust Intensity Scale –
Level 6. Damage may occur to buildings and trees. Power outages possible. High Profile Vehicle Roll-Over Likely. Do NOT recommend traveling in this zone.
Level 5. Some trees are broken, building damage possible. High Profile Vehicle Roll-Over Likely. HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA
Level 4. Slight damage may occur to trees/buildings. High Profile Vehicle Roll-Over Possible.
Level 3. Small branches may break, walking is difficult.
Level 2. Large trees sway, becoming difficult to walk. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
Level 1. Small trees sway, breezy