The northwest flow pattern we have been in for days continues to pull more energy into the area which in return is fueling more storm chances in the forecast. The next system on deck will hit this weekend as a upper closed low so read on for the full details…
An advancing warm front will push across the state Saturday through Sunday which will bring a rise in temperatures to much of the state. The system will start with an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms across northeast Iowa Saturday morning which should slide off to the east by early afternoon. Then by Saturday evening we will see showers and strong thunderstorms develop from west to central Iowa. This activity will become fairly widespread overnight into Sunday morning which is where the rain totals will add up fairly quickly. The main threats with any strong storms will be hail and damaging winds.
The PWAT values are not in the category to mention flooding concerns but I do think it’s worth mentioning the risk for isolated flooding if repeat convection is seen over the same areas. These storms will slowly taper off from west to east with central Iowa around midday on Sunday and eventually eastern Iowa Sunday evening. Rainfall amounts will be the highest across the central to northeast part of the state where some areas may easily exceed 2″+ of rain. That said, we will likely see quiet a few areas both on the northwest and southeast part of the state that may luck out on rain which is why I added “bust potential” in the rain forecast graphic. The forecast radar, heavy rain threat and forecast rainfall are below.
Forecast Radar –
Heavy Rainfall Threat –
Rain Forecast –