A strong storm system will bring a variety of weather dynamics to the state Thursday into Friday so read on for the details..
Drizzle and fog will begin to develop late tonight and linger into early Thursday morning before storms arrive. By Thursday morning we should start to work in showers and thunderstorms across western Iowa which will likely expand in coverage across much of the state through the morning. Then we should see a dry time across central to southern Iowa by the mid afternoon hours on Thursday, due to a core of dry air punching into the system.
Then later in the afternoon instability values will be on the rise to redevelop storms by later Thursday evening with threats of hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall and a few isolated tornadoes. We need to continue monitoring instability trends but would say that at least a few severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday evening, generally across the central section of the state.
By Thursday evening the cold front will start to work through northwest Iowa changing all rain over to snow which should continue to be the trend further east into Friday morning. Behind the front, strong wind gusts over 30+ MPH are expected, generally while snow is falling. I have issued a Winter Weather Advisory that does cover much of northwest Iowa and a separate Wind Advisory for those areas that aren’t expecting as much snow but still will see the wind event. The winter advisory discussion is below along with the current snow and rain models.
Winter Weather Advisory Discussion: A cold front will slide through northwest Iowa later Thursday evening. After the front has passed, temperatures will begin to drop and cold air will sink to the south allowing for rain to change over to snow. In addition to the snow, strong wind gusts of 30-45 MPH will greatly reduce visibility while snow is falling. Total snow accumulations of 2-6″ expected in the advisory area. Main activity will move east of the area by Friday morning.
Stay tuned to official forecasts from Iowa Storm Center for further updates.